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New Mexico Telegram » CD1, Featured, Polling » Chavez, Griego polls differ from Lujan Grisham’s (updated)

Chavez, Griego polls differ from Lujan Grisham’s (updated)

Following the release of Michelle Lujan Grisham’s poll that showed her tied with Eric Griego, the other two campaigns in the Democratic primary for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District have provided New Mexico Telegram with their own polls that show different results.

The Chavez poll shows a virtual dead heat between the three candidates, while Griego’s numbers show him ahead of both of his opponents.

A Chavez campaign source passes along these numbers from their own internal poll, which shows Chavez at 26 percnet, Lujan Grisham at 25 percent and Griego at 24 percent with 25 percent undecided.

The poll was conducted this weekend and was an automated poll of over 1900 respondents.

The Griego campaign has its own numbers from a May 15-16 poll conducted by GBA Strategies. The poll questioned 400 likely Democratic Voters. Update:<>b>

The polling memo is now embedded below. Post continues as written.

35% Griego
30% Lujan Grisham
28% Chavez

The Griego numbers NM Telegram received also include the results from an older poll. The February 28-March 1 poll showed Chavez at 37 percent, Griego at 30 percent and Lujan Grisham at 24 percent.

This echoes the Lujan Grisham polling numbers, which showed Chavez falling while Griego and Lujan Grisham surged. However, the Griego numbers, which are a little older than those of Lujan Grisham, show his growth in the polls larger than that of Lujan Grisham.

“Eric Griego is leading the field and has the momentum as we enter the final stretch of the race for New Mexico’s 1st district because New Mexicans support his unwavering commitment to protect Social Security and Medicare, hold Wall Street bankers accountable, and fight for core Democratic values,” Griego campaign manager Ed Yoon said in a statement.

As NM Telegram said in the post about Lujan Grisham’s polling, all internal polling must be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns will not release numbers that are unfavorable to their campaign for obvious reasons

No matter which numbers you see, it is clear that the three-way race is still close. With only two weeks up until election day, targeting the increasingly dwindling universe of undecided voters will become even more important to the campaigns.

There still has been no independent, public polling released in the Democratic primary.

Written by

Matthew Reichbach has blogged about New Mexico politics since 2006. Matthew was a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and part of the original hirings at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation. In addition to politics, Matthew is an avid sports fan, especially of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and TV fan.

Filed under: CD1, Featured, Polling · Tags: , , ,

5 Responses to "Chavez, Griego polls differ from Lujan Grisham’s (updated)"

  1. Susan says:

    It’s interesting that the Lujan Grisham campaign released a memo from their pollster with the results – but Griego and Chavez didn’t. What are they hiding? We know Marty did a robo poll – what was Eric’s? There was a push poll in the field last week that was benefiting Eric Griego – is that the same poll. Another interesting thing…he says he polled in February, but there is no expenditure on the last report…why not?

  2. Susan, that was no push poll. You are ignorant of polling practices and legal requirements.

  3. Terri says:

    Griego is releasing numbers for the push poll he conducted. He needs to release the transcript of his poll and everyone will know it was designed to inflate his numbers. The transcript of his poll is paraphrased below.
    We are condicting a poll on behalf of Eric Griego for Congress.
    How excited are you about the Congressioinal District 1 Democratic primary?
    Press 1 for very excited
    Press 2 for moderately excited
    Press 3 for not at all
    Who do you support for the House of Representatives?
    Press 1 for Senator Eric Griego
    Press 2 for Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham
    Press 3 for Mayor Marty Chavez
    What gender do you identify with?
    Press 1 for female
    Press 2 for male
    Plress3 for other
    Enter your year of birth
    If you have any questions, go to griegoforcongress.con or call (505) 304-3355

  4. My take is this: In general, internal pollsters favor their own candidates. They’re used for pushing a narrative, as well as to get an idea of how the race is going. Nate Silver, a statistician and polling guru from the New York Times recommends averaging polls rather than trying to choose one for accuracy. That means the aggragate of these three polls is:

    Griego 31%
    Lujan Grisham 30%
    Chavez 26%
    Undecided 13%

    In other words, damn close.

  5. Susan, this is a push poll, according to Wikipedia:

    “A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo or knowledge gleaned from opposition research on an opponent. They are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning.[1] The term is also sometimes used inaccurately to refer to legitimate polls which test political messages, some of which may be negative.”

    Neither Griego nor Chavez are using push polling, AFAIK.