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New Mexico Telegram » CD1, Featured, Polling, Senate » Poll: Lujan Grisham slight lead over Griego, Heinrich big lead over Balderas

Poll: Lujan Grisham slight lead over Griego, Heinrich big lead over Balderas

A poll by Manzano Strategies for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan shows a two-way race for the 1st Congressional District race between Bernalillo county commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham and state Senator Eric Griego has developed, with former Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez far behind the two as early voting begins.

Lujan Grisham polls 34.7%, Griego garners 33.9%, Chavez comes with 22.3% and 9% of the 728 likely Democratic voters in the 1st Congressional district who responded to the automatic phone poll said they were undecided.

Monahan failed to provide the dates of the poll.

The poll seems to echo the internal poll from Lujan Grisham rather than either of Griego or Chavez’s internal polls.

Griego has the edge among Hispanics, women and liberals but Lujan Grisham leads the three among men and Anglos.

Republican Bruce Donisthorpe supervised the poll and had these remarks:

If Lujan Grisham can peel moderates away from Chavez and maintain her position with liberals she can win this race. Griego has to maintain his liberal base and work for a heavy turnout among them.

Griego has to hope the labor endorsements and backing from outside groups will help with turnout among his base.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.62 percent.

U.S. Senate primary

The company also polled the Democratic primary in the U.S. Senate race between U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich and State Auditor Hector Balderas. The poll showed no unexpected results, but shows Heinrich way ahead of Balderas.

His 57.3% to 29.1% lead over Hector Balderas (with 13.6% undecided) is built on a blow-the-doors-off performance in his home town. Heinrich, the congressman for the ABQ district, overwhelms Balderas 69% to 23% in the 1st congressional district.

The numbers are about what many expected. The only question remaining seems to be if Balderas can keep Heinrich below the 60 percent mark on the way to the Democratic nomination.

Balderas and Heinrich have done no negative campaigning either in the advertising or behind the scenes. All the action has been cordial and the race has gone according to plan for Heinrich.

The stage is set for the last two members of Congress from the 1st Congressional District, Heinrich replaced Heather Wilson after Wilson left the seat for an unsuccessful Senate run in 2008, to do battle in November.

The Senate race was polled by Dialing Services LLC of Roswell. The Roswell company surveyed 1,392 voters by automatic phone calls and claims a margin of error of 2.62 percent.

Like with the 1st Congressional District survey, Monahan omitted the key information of the dates the poll was conducted.

The two polling companies are not name-brand pollsters, especially Dialing Services LLC, and the accuracy of their voter screens is not known. The Albuquerque Journal poll by Research and Polling, Inc. is in the field and results should be coming soon for primary races.

Photo: Screenshot of the three First Congressional Districts at the KOAT debate this weekend.

Written by

Matthew Reichbach has blogged about New Mexico politics since 2006. Matthew was a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and part of the original hirings at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation. In addition to politics, Matthew is an avid sports fan, especially of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and TV fan.

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One Response to "Poll: Lujan Grisham slight lead over Griego, Heinrich big lead over Balderas"

  1. Susan says:

    After looking at the polls released in the last two days and campaign activity, we can see who is releasing real numbers and who is in danger. Lujan Grisham was the first to release internal polling. This forced the other two campaigns to respond. Lujan Grisham’s numbers were Lujan Grisham 35% , Griego 35% and Chavez 23% . Griegos response was Griego 35% , Lujan Grisham 30% and Chavez 28% . The only independent poll sponsored by Joe Monahan has Lujan Grisham at 34.7%, Griego at 33.9% and Chavez at 22.3%. Lujan Grisham’s numbers are very close to the independent numbers for all three candidates.
    Lujan Grisham’s vs Monahan’s:
    Lujan Grisham 35% to 34.7% (spread of +0.3),
    Griego 35% to 33.9% (spread of +1.1%)
    Chavez 23% to 22.3% (spread of +.7).
    Griego’s vs Monahan’s:
    Lujan Grisham 30% to 34.7 (spread of -4.7)
    Griego 35% to 34.7% (spread of +0.3%)
    Chavez 28% to 22.3% (spread of +4.7%).
    Grisham is not only closer, but she did not release numbers that put her in the lead. It is easy to see who is releasing accurate data.
    Additional information also leads me to believe the numbers released by Griego are not accurate and the campaign knows. He started to attack the front runner with paid media. Front runners are never the first campaign to go negative. Griego went negative, so he must know something he is not willing to share. Is he distorting Lujan Grisham’s record because she has momentum and is leading in the polls? Read the attack.