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New Mexico Telegram » Featured, Polling, Senate » Wilson’s internal says she is only down by 1

Wilson’s internal says she is only down by 1

Photo by twinkletoez, FlickrAfter Rep. Martin Heinrich’s campaign released an internal poll showing him ahead by 8 percent, Heather Wilson’s campaign released its own internal poll showing a vastly different race. The poll showed Wilson down by just one percent — which would by far be the closest poll in many months.

The Wilson campaign issued a press release making the announcement touting its “comeback.”

The poll shows that when Independent American candidate Jon Barrie is included, Wilson leads 45 percent to 41 percent with Barrie taking 8 percent.

“The Senate race is tightening up. After being declared defeated by the pundits in August, the Wilson campaign has hit its stride,” the polling memo states. “This could go down to the wire.”

The Wilson polling memo is embedded below.

The Wilson poll is the first poll in the Senate race in months to show the race within five points. Her previous poll that showed a 5 percent lead for Heinrich was previously the closest poll in the race.

As always, it is worth mentioning that all internal polls should be taken with a caveat; there is no reason for campaigns to release polls that are bad news for them. It is all about adding to a narrative. In this case, the Wilson campaign wants to show a comeback, while the Heinrich campaign wants to show that they are still well ahead in the race.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll of 500 voters, including 100 cell phone voters, was conducted between September 25 and 27. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.38 percent.

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Matthew Reichbach has blogged about New Mexico politics since 2006. Matthew was a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and part of the original hirings at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation. In addition to politics, Matthew is an avid sports fan, especially of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and TV fan.

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