Roll Call announced that they are now listing the race as “likely Democratic” and cite the lack of funds by national Republicans as one reason why Heinrich is now a heavy favorite in the race.
Roll Call says that it is one of two currently Democratic Senate seats that are “virtually off the board” for Republicans in their estimation. The other is Hawaii’s Senate seat.
“Republicans have a similar situation in New Mexico, another race where they got the strongest possible nominee despite the demographics of the state favoring Democrats,” Roll Call writes. “Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) has run a good campaign. But national Republicans aren’t spending any money to help her, and polls show Rep. Martin Heinrich in a good position to win next month.”
Roll Call elaborated later in the article:
For all of former Rep. Heather Wilson’s (R) strengths as a candidate, she entered this open-seat race with high unfavorable ratings from her previous statewide campaign. Plus, she’s running in a heavily Hispanic state no longer viewed as competitive in the presidential race and against a solid Democratic recruit in Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), who took the lead in August and does not appear willing to let go.
So far, there has not been one poll in the race that has shown Wilson with the lead. The only polls in the last two months to show Wilson within five percent are two internal Wilson polls.
This includes polls that were conducted after the most recent Wilson internal poll that showed just a 1 percent lead for Heinrich. To find a non-Wilson poll that shows a race at five percent or closer, you have to back to a July Public Policy Polling poll to find such a close race.