Lujan Grisham internal poll shows her leading by 15 percent

An internal poll from the Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign shows that the Bernalillo County Commissioner leads former state Representative Janice Arnold-Jones 55 percent to 40 percent.

The poll is not unusual in this race, though it would have been unusual to see such a large lead in the district in past races.

The 1st Congressional District was once considered to be New Mexico’s swing district — and before Rep. Martin Heinrich won election in 2008, no Democrat had ever held the seat. But in recent years, the district has swung towards the Democratic Party. Heinrich won impressively in 2010 and kept his seat in the rough year for Democrats in 2010.

It would take something very dramatic to make this race close let alone for Arnold-Jones to pull the upset at this point.

The poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research on October 8 and 9. The poll of 407 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. The full polling memo is available below.