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New Mexico Telegram » Featured, Senate » Wilson internal puts her up in Senate race

Wilson internal puts her up in Senate race

Photo by twinkletoez, FlickrThe former Rep. Heather Wilson campaign released a poll showing she has a narrow lead over Rep. Martin Heinrich — 44 percent to 43 percent. The poll shows that Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie takes six percent of the vote and that seven percent are still undecided.

This contradicts two other recently-released polls that show Heinrich with a comfortable lead. The only polls since the beginning of July to show Wilson even within five percent of Heinrich are Wilson internal polls.

The polling memo is available below.

The campaign said i a press release, “Wilson has a history of coming back in every single general election race since 1998, the best example being 2006 when public polling showed her trailing her opponent by 10 points two weeks out. She won that race.”

The poll also shows that Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, with Gov. Gary Johnson taking 6 percent. This would also be closer than most other polls.

The polling memo says, “In 2008, across key districts, the Democrats had a 22% advantage on early votes – nearly 100,000 ballots. In 2010, when Susana Martinez won the governorship with 53.3% of the vote, Democrats had a 6.6% advantage on early votes in the same battleground areas, equating to 21,000 ballots. Now, the Democrats have a 11% advantage on early ballots,an advantage of 25,000 ballots.”

The memo does not say which “key districts” they are referring to.

The poll was conducted from October 21-22 and surveyed 500 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 4.38 percent.

Written by

Matthew Reichbach has blogged about New Mexico politics since 2006. Matthew was a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and part of the original hirings at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation. In addition to politics, Matthew is an avid sports fan, especially of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and TV fan.

Filed under: Featured, Senate

6 Responses to "Wilson internal puts her up in Senate race"

  1. Hemingway says:

    How gullible do the Heather Wilson campaign think New Mexicans are in this election? A new Public Opinion Strategies shows Heather Wilson leading Heinrich 44 percent to 43 percent. This is not a poll. It is a desperate political ploy because Ms. Wilson is losing so bad. It makes her look competitive.

    There are red flags about this suspicious survey. It was done by Public Opinion Strategies, which touts itself “the leading Republican polling firm.” The company was founded by four Republicans, including Neil Newhouse, who is Mitt Romney’s pollster and made the infamous statement that “we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers.” The obvious bias of Public Opinion Strategies calls into question its survey.

    Interesting Nicole McCleskey is a partner of Public Opinion Strategies and the wife of the Republican operative, Jay McCleskey, who runs the notorious “Reform New Mexico Now” PAC

  2. Dear Karl:
    Please send money.

    Love, Heather

  3. Hemingway says:

    Crossroads GPS is investing $512,000 in New Mexico for Heather Wilson. Maybe Heather Wilson’s bogus poll is bringing in the money!

  4. Abby Adamns says:

    The accuracy of this poll or those Heinrich’s campaign have done internally will soon be seen. What amazes me though is the continued comments by New Mexicans that reflect a lack of tolerance toward anyone whose beliefs differ from their own. The repeated nastiness directed toward Ms. Wilson and also, for that matter, Governor Romney, are further indications to many independents that we need to open our eyes. Though I voted for Heinrich in the past, I’ve seen how detrimental his actions congress have been to NM. He votes with his own interests in mind, not the interest of the state.

  5. Neology says:

    Oh Heather, just grab the banjo girl, and start playing your exit. And please just leave New Mexico. I’m sure Karl would love to have to back on the Board of one of his SuperPACs. What is it you do there, exactly?

  6. @Abby: I told you so.