The former Rep. Heather Wilson campaign released a poll showing she has a narrow lead over Rep. Martin Heinrich — 44 percent to 43 percent. The poll shows that Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie takes six percent of the vote and that seven percent are still undecided.
This contradicts two other recently-released polls that show Heinrich with a comfortable lead. The only polls since the beginning of July to show Wilson even within five percent of Heinrich are Wilson internal polls.
The polling memo is available below.
The campaign said i a press release, “Wilson has a history of coming back in every single general election race since 1998, the best example being 2006 when public polling showed her trailing her opponent by 10 points two weeks out. She won that race.”
The poll also shows that Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, with Gov. Gary Johnson taking 6 percent. This would also be closer than most other polls.
The polling memo says, “In 2008, across key districts, the Democrats had a 22% advantage on early votes – nearly 100,000 ballots. In 2010, when Susana Martinez won the governorship with 53.3% of the vote, Democrats had a 6.6% advantage on early votes in the same battleground areas, equating to 21,000 ballots. Now, the Democrats have a 11% advantage on early ballots,an advantage of 25,000 ballots.”
The memo does not say which “key districts” they are referring to.
The poll was conducted from October 21-22 and surveyed 500 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 4.38 percent.