A poll by the Albuquerque Journal shows that Tom Udall has a large lead over Allen Weh in the U.S. Senate race.
The poll shows Udall, the incumbent, has a 53 percent to 35 percent lead over Weh. There are 11 percent who are undecided.
A big part of Udall’s lead comes from his popularity among his base — the Democratic Party. Udall has the support of 79 percent of Democrats according to the poll. He also has the support of 70 percent of Hispanic voters — a massive voting bloc in New Mexico.
Weh actually leads among Anglos, but it is a narrow lead — 48 percent to 43 percent, within the margin of error, especially among subgroups.
Another show of Udall’s strength is that he is not losing by massive margins in typically conservative areas like northwest New Mexico and eastern New Mexico. Meanwhile, Udall has the support of nearly three quarters of voters in north-central New Mexico, one of the most reliably Democratic strongholds in the state. He also leads Weh 55 percent to 35 percent in the Albuquerque area, a typically swing area.
When compared to Martinez, who is facing King in the gubernatorial race, there is no region where Weh is within ten percent of Martinez’s numbers.
Udall also leads among decline-to-state voters, a constituency that is growing to be a larger percentage of the New Mexico voting population.
Brian Sanderoff, who heads Research and Polling, Inc., has more analysis at the Albuquerque Journal story on the poll.
This is Udall’s first reelection bid since being elected in 2008. Udall won an open seat race when longtime U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire. Udall had previously served as a member of Congress in the state’s 3rd Congressional District — the area where he has the highest amount of support.
While Republicans may take over the U.S. Senate after November’s elections, Udall is favored by political observers to win reelection.
The poll of 606 likely voters was conducted between August 12 and 14 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Thirty percent of the sample were cell phones.